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Issue 4 - Where is the Relief Pump?

The week started off painted red with solana almost touching $26 USD. The cascading dip all weekend from $34 all the way down meant reaching a higher peak of fear across the NFT market.

Across the top 10 marketcap projects, these are the following dips we saw:

DeGods dipped from around 360 – 380 at the start of the weekend to lows of 200 Solana at one point. Although there was only a couple sales around those levels, it still reflected deeper fear even in the top project. DeGods did still bounce from 200 all the way back to 300+ at the moment, however it did take over 24 hours to consolidate there. Despite the fact that this is still not an immense amount of time in the swing, it was still notably longer than usual. Nonetheless, DeGods has bounced back and are holding 300 comfortably.

The same cannot be said for other established top market capitalization projects.

June 10th was when Solana started to break down below $40. It’s no coincidence that for the following projects that this was a key price level that NFT investors wanted to hold. Once it broke through under $40, Okay Bears dropped from 135 Solana all the way down to 78 – 80 Solana (40% dip over three days with no relief pump, just like our markets. Around the lows, HGE (known whale) picked up 50 bears to his collection which provided some pushback towards 95 – 100 (the ideal level we want the project to hold):

Okay Bears has bounced around 15-20 off their absolute lows following the Solana dip to $26.

Blocksmith Labs, a strong utility project whose price action has been one of the most consistent since mint has dropped from 130 (local top) to as low as 73. Usually in the 70 – 75 range there is considerable support. We’ve seen bounces off this level in the past back past 100 at relative ease and pace. However, this time sentiment and price action is different.

Unlike DeGods, Blocksmith Labs is still yet to really bounce back the way we’d want it to. Price action does not necessarily reflect the strength of the project, in fact in most cases, it doesn’t. However, BSL has proven itself to be a 100+ project with the given utility it’s provided. Listings are starting to trend back down, the only thing is that listings around current levels have equated to higher floors in both solana + USD in previous cases.

10th in total marketcap, we have cets on creck. Arguably, they’ve been dipping ever since their high of 111 solana. Even moreso, it’s been fading ever since Okay Bears launched and it has yet to recover the hype that it captured in those early weeks. On the May 16/17th dip, the project was retaining a 70+ solana floor. However, since then albeit some minor relief pumps back to 60 in between, on every sizeable dip on solana, cets on creck has tested lows of 33 to 40. In the current state of the market with all these new projects coming out and vying for liquidity, I believe cets on creck has some work to do/announcements to make for sentiment to change. Personally, I think the project can still deliver something big for the space. Peblo has something brewing, but crucially timing wise, it’ll be interesting. Particularly with how the overall nft market is trending. Will the update be monstrous and pump cets back up to it’s highs? Alternatively, will it be a little too late when a lot of liquidity and attention has left the market? The answer remains to be seen.

Catalina Whales is the next project. Currently still sitting in 6th for marketcap despite an immense drop over the weekend. There were two main reasons for the dip you see below. The first reason we’ve already mentioned – the drop of price in solana. Secondly, holding a Catalina Whale allowed access for super-hyped 7 solana mint of Bubblegoose Ballers collection. Bubblegoose Ballers ended up being a mint out with 70K solana raised and floors still profitable hovering around the 9 -11 solana mark.

It was Catalina Whales that ended up dropping over 50% in value because of these two events. It felt the brunt of a double whammy and floors have dropped to lows of even 55 since June 11th and has yet to really bounce back like it usually does. There’s been a 10 sol relief pump so far, which is still well under previous levels where it’s found strong support.

With all the doom and gloom you may feel this update has provided, there are some projects notably under 50 SOL who have held well over the weekend dip. Those projects would be Famous Foxes which haven’t seen much of a dip at all, still holding 35-38 relatively strongly.

Portals dipped from 37 pre-weekend to as low as 29, but has since recovered completely to return back to 37. OG Atadians are still holding 30 solana which isn’t too far off where they were.

The project which has surprised me more than anything was the Primates mint. 4 SOL mint that dipped as low as 0.98 SOL post mint and has since gone on an absolute tear moving all the way up past 34 solana as we currently speak. A couple things as to why I think the project has pumped:

  1. The art is unique and in my opinion quite nice

  2. The market has been waiting for something to buy in the lower region in terms of price

  3. Influencers started to pump these and over 20% of supply are now displayed as a PFP on twitter (namely 0x_fxnction + jawnxwick)

Something to note: This is one of the hyper projects that differentiated itself by not releasing a 10k supply. Total supply for Primates is 3244.

My current take on the market:

I’m hesitant to believe that the coin prices will stabilize here for too long. We saw a momentary pump up to $35USD but that was sold off almost instantly over the next 24 hours. It would not surprise me if we dipped further down into the low 20s which would cause more pandemonium in the NFT market.

Liquidity overall is trending down still with again only hyped mints that are keeping these figures inflated. Movement towards established projects which we’ve seen over previous dips is not coming as fervently as it used to. Sellers are thinking that they can cut a loss now and then rebuy lower. Daily volume is trending towards 100K a day and I expect this trend to continue.

Stay safe out there and we’ll talk soon.

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